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International community can reduce conflict and crises worldwide, but only if countries agree to invest in prevention, says new report (17/2/2005)

The international community needs to invest in reducing future risk of conflict and political instability, or continue to pay the high human and financial costs of reacting to repeated crisis, says a new report from the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit.

The report Investing in Prevention: an international strategy to manage risks of instability and improve crisis response is published today as a report for consideration by the Government.

It was commissioned by the Government to address the challenges posed by fragile and unstable countries in an interdependent world. The report proposes a comprehensive international strategy to address this challenge and outlines priority policy initiatives which could make a significant impact over the next five years.

The report argues that ongoing international crises are causing untold human suffering. Instability around the globe also affects our own security, stability and prosperity. Increased conflict and state failure will impact on the UK directly, by hampering efforts to tackle terrorism and organised crime, locking countries into poverty, stimulating refugee flows and undermining the UK's energy security. The risk of instability in many countries is likely to increase over the coming decades, not least as HIV/AIDS and climate change impact already unstable countries.

The international community has made serious commitments to strengthen its peace support capability in the last few years. However, the report argues that rebuilding failed and conflict ridden states is an expensive and long-term task, and 50% of countries still fall back into conflict after five years. Preventing conflict in the first place is much more cost effective, but is a complex and long-term task. Despite many good initiatives - including the UK's Conflict Prevention Pools and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative - the level of political and financial resources invested in tackling the root causes of instability and preventing crises has not matched the scale of the challenge.

The report proposes sustained and scaled-up preventive action, particularly in Africa, which is one of the UK's priorities for 2005. The report argues that reducing poverty in Africa requires complementary investment in conflict prevention and resolution alongside more aid, better trade and less debt. When prevention fails, faster and more effective crisis response mechanisms are necessary.

The report proposes four priority areas for action.

• Prevention must focus on real investment to build vulnerable countries' capacity to peacefully manage conflict, with a particular focus on countries dependent on oil and other natural resources.
• Stronger regional organisations and relationships are needed to support governments committed to stability, and effective sanctions to tackle destabilising behaviour such as looting of state assets.
• All countries must take greater responsibility for helping tackle global causes of instability such as poverty, HIV/AIDS, climate change, financial crises, organised crime and competition for oil.
• Finally, an effective response to crises must be maintained for when prevention fails. With adequate numbers of well-trained and deployable peace support personnel and better systems to cut off funding to conflict protagonists.

More resources for prevention and crisis management are necessary, but will not deliver on their own, says the report. Successful prevention will also require significant new reforms to ensure more joined-up and strategic cooperation between different arms of government - diplomatic, development, military and policing - and between different international actors and institutions.

The report has been presented for consideration to the Government and its detailed recommendations are being considered by relevant departments.

Notes to editors

1. Copies of the report Investing in Prevention are available on the Strategy Unit website (www.strategy.gov.uk) or by telephoning 020 7276 1881. Background papers produced during the project will be made available on the website on 25th February 2005.

2. The project was initiated by Cabinet as a result of the 2003 Strategic Audit performed by Strategy Unit.

3. The objective of the project was to develop better response to the challenge of countries at risk of instability, including improved risk assessment and decision-making systems.

4. The sponsor Ministers were Jack Straw, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs and Hilary Benn, Secretary of State for International Development.

5. The project team has worked working closely with the FCO, DFID, MOD, HMT, Home Office, DEFRA, DTI and other government departments. The team also consulted widely with international institutions, other countries and external experts.

6. The Strategy Unit provides the Prime Minister and government departments with a capacity to analyse strategic policy issues and to design long-term solutions to problems. It was formed by a merger of the Performance and Innovation Unit (PIU), the Forward Strategy Unit (FSU) and parts of the Policy Studies Directorate of the Centre for Management and Policy Studies (CMPS) in June 2002.

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